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09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees have put together their longest winning streak of the season without the presence of Alex Rodriguez in their lineup. The All-Star third baseman hopes to provide the American League East leaders a further boost when he makes an expected return to action for this afternoon's clash with the Toronto Blue Jays from Yankee Stadium.
Rodriguez hasn't played since leaving an August 20 contest against Seattle with a strained left calf, but the Yankees haven't been hindered by the three- time AL MVP's absence. New York has gone 11-3 since Rodriguez went on the DL and prevailed for the eighth consecutive time with Saturday's 7-5 triumph over the Blue Jays in the second test of this three-game series.
The surge, coupled with Tampa Bay's loss to Baltimore last night, has moved the Bronx Bombers 2 1/2 games up on the Rays for first place in the AL East as well as the best record in baseball.
Marcus Thames knocked in the deciding runs in Saturday's matchup by belting a tie-breaking two-run homer off Toronto reliever Jason Frasor in the bottom of the seventh inning. The blast followed a two-out single by Robinson Cano, who finished 2-for-4 with a pair of RBI on the afternoon.
Big. Huge home run," said Yankees manager Joe Girardi about Thames' shot. "Marcus has been a huge addition for us."
Joba Chamberlain, one of five New York relievers for the game, received the win after keeping the Jays off the board in the top of the seventh. Kerry Wood followed with a shutout inning before Mariano Rivera worked a scoreless ninth for his 29th save of the year.
Yankees starter Javier Vazquez lasted only 4 2/3 innings and was reached for five runs while walking four batters. Marc Rzepczynski wasn't any better for Toronto, allowing five runs and issuing three walks before exiting after four innings.
"You can't walk people and expect to survive, especially when you're dealing with a team like the Yankees, Boston or anybody in the East Division," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston remarked. "You have to throw strikes."
The Yankees will be aiming to string together nine straight victories for the first time since May 13-21, 2009 and will have 16-game winner Phil Hughes on the hill for today's finale. The All-Star hurler has compiled a 10-3 record at home during his breakthrough campaign, although he's pitched to a so-so 4.60 earned run average and surrendered 16 homers in 88 innings over those 15 Yankee Stadium starts.
Hughes has an opportunity to atone for a poor outing against the Blue Jays in Toronto on August 25, when the young right-hander was tagged for five runs and walked five while throwing 104 pitches in just 3 2/3 innings to take a loss. He also walked five batters in Tuesday's home assignment against Oakland, but was able to limit the damage to two runs in five innings and got plenty of offensive support in a 9-3 win.
The 24-year-old did come through with 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball to defeat Toronto in the Bronx on August 4 and is 2-2 with a 4.35 ERA in 15 career appearances (eight starts) against Toronto.
Brett Cecil opposed Hughes in that August 25 tilt at the Rogers Centre and helped the Blue Jays to victory by yielding just two runs over eight effective innings. The sophomore lefty has given the Yankees trouble all throughout the year, as he's 2-0 with an excellent 1.64 ERA in three 2010 starts against the defending world champs.
Cecil wasn't as sharp in last Monday's encounter with Tampa Bay, permitting five runs in seven innings during his team's 6-2 setback. Three of those runs wound up being unearned, however, due to one of three errors committed by the Blue Jays on the night.
The 24-year-old, who's 2-1 with a 4.20 ERA over five lifetime meetings with the Yankees, has put together a solid 11-7 record with a 3.74 ERA in 23 starts for the year.
Cecil will be attempting to halt a three-game slide for the Blue Jays, losers of five of their last six tests. Toronto has split 14 bouts with the Yankees this season, with New York having won five of the eight games played between the teams at home.
<< Davis goes for seventh straight win in Baltimore
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wade Davis has been awfully tough to beat over the past
two-plus months. Against the Baltimore Orioles, the Tampa Bay Rays pitcher has
been just about invincible during his brief tenure in the majors.
Davis tries to extend
<< Tigers pin hopes on Galarraga in finale with Royals
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Streaking righty Armando Galarraga can stay perfect for his
career against Kansas City today when the Detroit Tigers visit the Royals in
the finale of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium.
The Tigers won Friday's opener
<< Ishikawa wins playoff in Japan
Yamanashi, Japan (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryo Ishikawa knocked off Shunsuke Sonoda
in a playoff Sunday to repeat as champion at the Fujisankei Classic.
Ishikawa closed with a one-under 70, while Sonoda posted a four-under 67. They
finished at ni
<< Runnin' over Rebels: Badgers win on strong ground game
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Clay ran for 123 yards and two
touchdowns, as 12th-ranked Wisconsin used its ground game to take a resounding
41-21 win over UNLV in the teams' season-opener.
Clay picked up right where he lef
Cellar-dwellers wrap up set at PNC Park >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of struggling one-win pitchers square off today at
PNC Park when the host Pittsburgh Pirates and visiting Washington Nationals
meet in the rubber game of a three-game weekend series.
The Nationals dropped Friday's o
Red-hot Phils attempt season sweep of Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies shoot for their sixth straight
win and try to complete season sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon
at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies, who also swept the Brewers in a three-game set back
Cubs, Mets conclude series at Wrigley >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs try to continue their resurgence under
interim manager Mike Quade this afternoon when they go for a sweep in their
three-game series with the New York Mets at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs improved to 8-3 under
A's try to break out the brooms on Angels >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim haven't been swept in a
series of at least three games by the Oakland Athletics in more than six
years, partly due to the success Ervin Santana has produced against the team's
American League
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting